MADness—the Blog

It takes three days for the accountants at PricewaterhouseCoopers to count all the ballots of Academy voters.  They’ll be done sometime today, at which point exactly two people will know the names of the winners.  The rest of us get the news Sunday night.

In the meantime we can make predictions.  If we didn’t make predictions, we wouldn’t have any surprises.  I hope there might be a few at the big show, but at this time it all looks very predictable.

You can take a look at what I see in my crystal ball, my picks for the Oscars.

Best Picture

• Avatar
• The Blind Side
• District 9
• An Education
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious
• A Serious Man
• Up
• Up in the Air

The winner:  The Hurt Locker
The verdict:  Oscar gets it right!  All the talk is that it’s a two-picture race.  If so, it really shouldn’t be close.  Avatar is technically stunning and visually imaginative, but it doesn’t compare to The Hurt Locker as a complete film.  With District 9 in the running, sci-fi fans have another place to put their vote.  That should help Kathyrn Bigelow’s film.  I’ve read that the new preference voting procedures also will work against Avatar, but I don’t think anybody really knows which film will benefit from the new process.

Best Actor

• Jeff Bridges Crazy Heart
• George Clooney Up in the Air
• Colin Firth A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman Invictus
• Jeremy Renner The Hurt Locker

The winner:  Jeff Bridges
The verdict:  It’s about time!  I can’t seeing anyone else winning, but if there is a longshot winner, it’ll be Colin Firth.

Best Supporting Actor

• Matt Damonin Invictus
• Woody Harrelson The Messenger
• Christopher Plummer The Last Station
• Stanley Tucci The Lovely Bones
• Christoph Waltz Inglourious Basterds

The winner:  Christoph Waltz
The verdict:  A terrific performance and a well-deserved win.  The dark horse is Woody Harrelson.

Best Actress

• Sandra Bullock The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe Precious
• Meryl Streep Julie & Julia

The winner:  Sandra Bullock
The verdict:  Somehow the thinking with Academy voters seems to go like this:  Meryl Streep gave a great performance this year, so let’s give her a nomination—but let’s give the Oscar to someone else.  It’s been 27 years since her last win (she has 16 noms altogether), and there’s no reason to keep her waiting any longer.  Perhaps if they had preference voting for Best Actress (it’s only used for Best Picture, though), Streep would have a third little man for her mantel.  That said, my rooting interest here is for Carey Mulligan.

Best Supporting Actress

• Penélope Cruz Nine
• Vera Farmiga Up in the Air
• Maggie Gyllenhaal Crazy Heart
• Anna Kendrick Up in the Air
• Mo’Nique Precious

The winner:  Mo’Nique
The verdict:  No contest.

Best Director

• Avatar James Cameron
• The Hurt Locker Kathryn Bigelow
• Inglourious Basterds Quentin Tarantino
• Precious Lee Daniels
• Up in the Air Jason Reitman

The winner:  Kathryn Bigelow
The verdict:  The headlines will be:  A Woman Wins (Finally).  Bottom line:  Bigelow deserves it.

Foreign Language Film

• Ajami Israel
• The Milk of Sorrow (La Teta Asustada) Peru
• A Prophet (Un Prophète) France
• The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos) Argentina
• The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band) Germany

The winner:  A Prophet
The verdict:  It’s a powerful film, but not the kind of material that often wins the Oscar.  I have not yet seen the South American films so I can’t judge, but the buzz for the Argentine entry is strong, and it has an excellent chance to win.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• District 9 Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
• An Education Screenplay by Nick Hornby
• In the Loop Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
• Precious Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
• Up in the Air Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

The winner:  Up in the Air
The verdict:  A smart screenplay.  Writing is a lot more than dialogue, but the dialogue is what people remember, and the dialogue in Up in the Air is sharp and reminiscent of Hollywood classics of the past.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• The Hurt Locker Written by Mark Boal
• Inglourious Basterds Written by Quentin Tarantino
• The Messenger Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
• A Serious Man Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• Up Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

The winner:  The Hurt Locker
The verdict:  The Hurt Locker by a nose, but don’t count out Tarantino.

Animated Feature Film

• Coraline Henry Selick
• Fantastic Mr. Fox Wes Anderson
• The Princess and the Frog John Musker and Ron Clements
• The Secret of Kells Tomm Moore
• Up Pete Docter

The winner:  Up

Art Direction

• Avatar
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
• Nine
• Sherlock Holmes
• The Young Victoria

The winner:  Avatar

Cinematography

• Avatar Mauro Fiore
• Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Bruno Delbonnel
• The Hurt Locker Barry Ackroyd
• Inglourious Basterds Robert Richardson
• The White Ribbon Christian Berger

The winner:  The Hurt Locker
The verdict:  I wouldn’t mind seeing The White Ribbon win, but I’m a sucker for black-and-white.

Costume Design

• Bright Star Janet Patterson
• Coco before Chanel Catherine Leterrier
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Monique Prudhomme
• Nine Colleen Atwood
• The Young Victoria Sandy Powell

The winner:  Coco Before Chanel
The verdict:  Everyone in the know is picking The Young Victoria, but I need to be a contrarian somewhere.

Documentary (Feature)

• Burma VJ Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
• The Cove Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens
• Food, Inc. Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
• The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
• Which Way Home Rebecca Cammisa

The winner:  The Cove

Documentary (Short Subject)

• China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
• The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
• The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
• Music by Prudence Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
• Rabbit à la Berlin Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

The winner:  Music by Prudence

Film Editing

• Avatar Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
• District 9 Julian Clarke
• The Hurt Locker Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
• Inglourious Basterds Sally Menke
• Precious Joe Klotz

The winner:  The Hurt Locker

Makeup

• Il Divo
• Star Trek
• The Young Victoria

The winner:  Star Trek
The verdict:  A well-liked sci-fi film (though I was lukewarm) gets its one Oscar.

Music (Original Score)

• Avatar James Horner
• Fantastic Mr. Fox Alexandre Desplat
• The Hurt Locker Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
• Sherlock Holmes Hans Zimmer
• Up Michael Giacchino

The winner:  Up
The verdict:  Michael Giacchino’s score was just terrific.

Music (Original Song)

• Almost There (from “The Princess and the Frog,” by Randy Newman)
• Down in New Orleans (from “The Princess and the Frog,” by Randy Newman)
• Loin de Paname (from “Paris 36,” by Reinhardt Wagner, Frank Thomas)
• Take It All (from “Nine,” by Maury Yeston)
• The Weary Kind (Theme from “Crazy Heart”) (by Ryan Bingham, T Bone Burnett)

The winner:  The Weary Kind
The verdict:  I’m not sure it was the best song in the film, but it’s the best of the nominees.

Short Film (Animated)

• French Roast
• Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
• The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
• Logorama
• A Matter of Loaf and Death

The winner:  A Matter of Loaf and Death
The verdict:  Never bet against Nick Park.

Short Film (Live Action)

• The Door
• Instead of Abracadabra
• Kavi
• Miracle Fish
• The New Tenants

The winner:  Kavi
The verdict:  Picking winners when you haven’t seen the films is a little like picking racehorses based on their names. 

Sound Editing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Star Trek
• Up

The winner:  Avatar

Sound Mixing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Star Trek
• Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

The winner:  Avatar

Visual Effects

• Avatar
• District 9
• Star Trek

The winner:  Avatar